Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 18.914589 20.536677 22.288642 24.331050 26.658805 29.243672 32.351470
2025-09-07 16.149118 18.336261 20.862650 24.033640 27.961163 32.740513 39.116595
2025-09-14 14.316788 16.878491 20.013094 24.216615 29.846221 37.347660 48.519449
2025-09-21 12.948264 15.766031 19.392311 24.556701 32.006455 42.878452 61.098275
2025-09-28 11.854500 14.841576 18.859451 24.902444 34.253835 49.195441 77.606470
2025-10-05 10.638313 13.596275 17.709243 24.161705 34.724751 52.937663 91.742696
2025-10-12 9.740778 12.683046 16.900119 23.782218 35.677808 57.825255 111.180180
2025-10-19 9.109904 12.075862 16.454086 23.885414 37.467421 64.928042 141.196837
2025-10-26 8.342718 11.192446 15.483865 22.967978 37.198290 67.774577 162.847605
2025-11-02 7.830019 10.641846 14.969263 22.746248 38.212145 73.911422 201.973540
2025-11-09 7.433839 10.232369 14.632583 22.782160 39.754712 82.059641 261.467916
2025-11-16 7.083832 9.863954 14.322079 22.814460 41.300645 91.056854 344.922927
2025-11-23 6.723926 9.484916 14.011905 22.919020 43.348044 103.825383 503.936383
2025-11-30 6.380590 9.110418 13.681230 22.958625 45.366037 118.636115 785.778063
2025-12-07 6.117139 8.848033 13.525082 23.347455 48.499764 141.188575 1504.004899
2025-12-14 5.886556 8.622334 13.412702 23.822200 52.139458 171.286830 3845.793692
2025-12-21 5.670248 8.403308 13.289434 24.259196 55.939678 209.507307 18732.067271
2025-12-28 5.350342 7.980598 12.737529 23.615445 56.136730 228.162099 136273.852149
2026-01-04 5.095591 7.655425 12.345121 23.294548 57.363368 257.795923 NaN
2026-01-11 4.910309 7.440875 12.149624 23.426252 60.312671 310.619838 NaN
2026-01-18 4.642209 7.060238 11.589367 22.554514 59.215145 325.009586 NaN
2026-01-25 4.459527 6.824289 11.303574 22.352153 60.726461 374.874948 NaN
2026-02-01 4.313556 6.646531 11.121637 22.396396 63.331148 453.625306 NaN